La Liga · Regular Season - 8 · Sat 10 Oct 2026

Alaves

W W L L D

1–2

Full time · HT 1–1

Atletico Madrid

W L W W W

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction & betting tips

Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz · Referee Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Our tip

WON

Atletico Madrid or draw

Double chance · X2

1.22

Odds · Bet365

Model confidence90%

Win probability

10%

45%

AlavesDrawAtletico Madrid

18+ · Odds change. Only stake what you can afford to lose.

Match preview

Alaves arrive with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last five league games (WWLLD), while Atletico Madrid have 4 wins and 1 defeat (WLWWW). The prediction model rates Alaves at 10%, the draw at 45% and Atletico Madrid at 45%. At home Alaves score 2.3 and concede 0.8 goals per game; on the road Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The sides have met 10 times in our records. Our pick: Atletico Madrid or draw at 1.22.

Odds

Bet365

Match result

Alaves 4.20

Draw 3.80

Atletico Madrid 1.80

Double chance

1X 1.95

12 1.25

X2 1.22

Both teams to score

Yes 1.80

No 1.95

Total goals

Over 1.5 1.25

Under 1.5 4.00

Over 2.5 1.80

Under 2.5 2.00

Over 3.5 3.20

Under 3.5 1.36

Match events

33’ Alejandro Grimaldo · assist Jonathan David
45’ Ademola Lookman · Yellow Card
45+1’ Robin Le Normand · Yellow Card
45+6’ Lucas Boyé · Penalty
45’ Jonathan David for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
45’ Ademola Lookman for Julián Álvarez
57’ Pablo Barrios Rivas for Lee Kang-In
60’ Angel Pérez Hidalgo · Card upgrade confirmed
61’ Angel Pérez Hidalgo · Red Card
62’ Robin Le Normand for Dávid Hancko
64’ Antonio Blanco for Carlos Protesoni
64’ Toni Martínez for Mariano Díaz
64’ Lucas Boyé for Ander Guevara
71’ Nicolas Valentini for Ville Koski
73’ Giuliano Simeone Baldini for Alexander Sørloth
79’ Denis Suárez for Aitor Mañas
87’ Cristian Romero · assist Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
90+2’ Johnny Cardoso · Yellow Card

Lineups

Alaves 3-5-2

1SiveraG
14N. TenagliaD
2N. ValentiniD
17JonnyD
7Angel PérezM
4Denis SuárezM
8Antonio BlancoM
19Pablo IbáñezM
21A. RebbachM
11Toni MartínezF
15L. BoyéF

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Atletico Madrid 4-4-2

13J. OblakG
14Marcos LlorenteD
21C. RomeroD
24Robin Le NormandD
22Álex GrimaldoD
6KokeM
5J. CardosoM
20G. SimeoneM
8Pablo BarriosM
11A. LookmanM
15J. DavidF

Coach: D. Simeone

Alaves

Team comparison

Atletico Madrid

37%Form63%

37%Attack63%

50%Defence50%

61%Goals model39%

38%Head-to-head62%

50%Goals50%

46%Overall55%

This season

Alaves	Stat	Atletico Madrid
7	Played	7
3	Wins	5
2	Draws	1
2	Defeats	1
1.6	Goals scored per game	2.3
0.9	Goals conceded per game	1.0
2.3	Scored per game (home / away)	2.0
0.8	Conceded per game (home / away)	1.3
3	Clean sheets	3
2	Failed to score	1
2	Longest winning run	1

Alaves

W W L L D

Form · last 547%

Attack · last 547%

Defence · last 567%

Atletico Madrid

W L W W W

Form · last 580%

Attack · last 580%

Defence · last 567%

Head-to-head

18 Jan 2026 Atletico Madrid 1–0 Alaves
30 Aug 2025 Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid
03 May 2025 Alaves 0–0 Atletico Madrid
23 Nov 2024 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
21 Apr 2024 Alaves 2–0 Atletico Madrid
29 Oct 2023 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves